The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, a forward-looking gauge of economic activity, fell in December for the 21st month in a row. The index fell by 0.1% in December, below expectations, yet contracted by 2.9% over the past six months, down from 4.3% for the prior six-month period. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% monthly drop. Six of the 10 indicators in the survey were positive in December, a big improvement compared to prior months. “Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence,” commented Justyna Zabinska-LaMonica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. “As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and 12-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”
