A forward-looking measure of the U.S. economy continued to decline in January, but is no longer signaling a recession in 2024, reflecting an economy outperforming expectations. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell by 0.4% last month to 102.7, following a 0.2% drop in December. However, six of the 10 index components have shown positive results over the past six months, the board said – the first time it has happened in two years. “As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators. “While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent in the second and third quarters,” she added.
